Night view of Pennsylvania Avenue and Capitol Building, Washington D.C., USA

A Guide to the OBBBA Numbers

July 3, 2025

When it comes to the fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, there’s no shortage of numbers in circulation—and that’s part of the challenge. Depending on which assumptions or scoring conventions are used, the figures vary, and that can muddy the conversation. So here’s a quick guide to help you navigate the most commonly cited estimates. Each one reflects the projected impact over ten years—not just a single fiscal year—which is critical context for understanding the long-term consequences.

Estimated 10-Year Deficit Increase


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