WASHINGTON —
The Concord Coalition today welcomed the adoption of a Fiscal Year 2009
congressional budget resolution
— the
first election-year passage in a deficit constrained environment since 1996
— but warned that the plan assumes some
very difficult choices on the revenue side to comply with pay-as-you-go (paygo)
rules; assumes a paygo waiver for $340 billion of tax cut extensions, and, on
WASHINGTON —
The Concord Coalition today welcomed the adoption of a Fiscal Year 2009
congressional budget resolution
— the
first election-year passage in a deficit constrained environment since 1996
— but warned that the plan assumes some
very difficult choices on the revenue side to comply with pay-as-you-go (paygo)
rules; assumes a paygo waiver for $340 billion of tax cut extensions, and, on
the spending side, makes no provision for cost-cutting entitlement reform.
"Congressional passage of the budget resolution in a tough
political and fiscal environment represents an important commitment to the
budget process, and the idea that Congress needs to work within the constraints
of an overall budget just like most American families. However, the recent
trend—particularly in the Senate—of rejecting offsets and instead borrowing
money with the national credit card to pay for items like Alternative Minimum
Tax relief and the GI Bill expansion are ominous signs that the targets in this
budget will be very hard to achieve. This is especially true when you consider
that the choices in the five-year budget window will just become more difficult
as war costs greatly exceed the small placeholder amount in the budget, AMT
relief gets more expensive, the Baby Boomers begin to qualify for Social
Security and Medicare, and the tax cuts come closer to expiring in 2010,” said
Concord Coalition executive director Robert L. Bixby.
Under the budget resolution, revenues and outlays would
balance at about 19 percent of GDP in 2012. That is lower than this year’s
projected level of outlays (20.6 percent of GDP) although the budget resolution
does not require any major cost cutting initiatives. Revenues by 2012 would be
higher than projected for this year (17.9 percent of GDP) although the budget
resolution does not instruct the House Ways and Means or Senate Finance
Committees to raise taxes. The revenue increase in the budget resolution is the
result of current law "sunsets" that were included when these tax cuts were
originally enacted.
Concord noted the following positive aspects of the budget
resolution:
- It reaffirms the balanced budget goal.
- Despite the presumed waiver of paygo for certain tax
cut extensions, the budget resolution does not exempt any tax cut
legislation or mandatory spending expansion from the rule. - Discretionary spending would eventually fall as a
percentage of the economy, provided that Congress sticks with its
targeted spending levels.
There are other aspects of the plan that Concord finds
disappointing. Specifically:
- It does not budget for likely war costs. Like
the President’s budget, the budget resolution assumes just $70 billion for
the cost of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2009 and nothing
in 2010 through 2012. - It does not provide a spending reconciliation bill to
achieve savings in entitlement programs. The explosion in health care and
retirement benefits that looms on the horizon is the single biggest threat
to our nation’s fiscal health. Including entitlement savings as a regular
part of the annual budget process is an important step in addressing our
long-term challenges. Even if paygo is strictly applied to expansions of
mandatory programs, this would still leave spending growth under current law
on an unsustainable path. - It does not provide for discretionary spending caps
beyond fiscal year 2009. In projecting a balanced budget in 2012, the budget
resolution assumes much lower increases in non-defense discretionary
spending after 2009, including increases lower than inflation from
2010-2012. Overall, the budget projects a decline in non-defense
discretionary spending as a percent of GDP in every year after 2009.
Without caps, the spending restraint assumed in the outyears of the budget
resolution will be much harder to achieve. - It does not assume revenue numbers that are consistent
with strict application of paygo. Under current law, the tax cuts enacted in
2001 and 2003 are scheduled to expire on December 31, 2010. Moreover,
current law does not assume further relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax.
Thus, under paygo, the revenue that comes from these provisions would be
assumed in the budget resolution. However, the budget resolution assumes a
revenue number that is $340 billion below what would be collected if
paygo applied. This number, in effect, assumes a waiver of paygo to provide
for extending certain tax cuts.
Revenue and Outlays as a Percentage of GDP
In the FY09 Budget Conference Report
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.89% |
8.01% |
7.42% |
6.83% |
6.46% |
6.28% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.64% |
1.47% |
1.60% |
1.67% |
1.68% |
1.62% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.13% |
0.06% |
###
The Concord Coalition is a nonpartisan, grassroots
organization dedicated to balanced federal budgets and generationally
responsible fiscal policy. Former U.S. Senators Warren Rudman (R-NH) and Bob
Kerrey (D-NE) serve as Concord’s co-chairs and former Secretary of Commerce
Peter Peterson serves as president.
CONTACT:
Jonathan DeWald
(703) 894-6222
jdewald@concordcoalition.org
