June 26, 2017

Posts on economy

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Tuesday, June 6, 2017 - 5:13 PM

President Trump’s nominee for chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), Kevin Hassett, appeared before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee for his confirmation hearing on Tuesday. The nomination of Hassett, an American Enterprise Institute economist, received broad bipartisan support from dozens of respected economists, including all four CEA chairs who served in the Obama Administration.

The chairman of the CEA will be particularly important to the Trump administration given its stated desire to pursue tax reform and its recent budget proposal, which promised sustained economic growth of 3 percent per year within a few years.

Should these projections prove overly optimistic, as most independent analysts believe they will, the result would be large fiscal shortfalls that would increase the nation’s debt burden. It is thus critical that the administration make economic policy decisions based on realistic and informed premises.

Hassett articulated a desire to provide the president with exactly that, emphasizing in his testimony his commitment to “gather evidence and not...

Wednesday, May 31, 2017 - 11:00 AM

The Trump administration’s budget plan rests heavily on the assumption that the American economy will grow much more rapidly in the next decade than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and many private-sector economists have projected.

The Concord Coalition, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and many other analysts have expressed skepticism about this highly optimistic assumption about future economic growth.

Democrats have been critical as well. But in addition, Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) took the opportunity at a House Budget Committee hearing last week to present Mick Mulvaney, the White House budget director, with a forceful explanation of the risks and consequences of unrealistic growth projections.

The CBO is projecting average economic growth over the next decade at a little under 2 percent a year. The administration’s budget, however, calls for annual growth to climb from 1.6 percent last year to 2.4 percent next year and to 3 percent in 2021 and beyond.

This growth assumption is crucial to the administration’s claim that its tax and spending...

Wednesday, March 8, 2017 - 3:15 PM

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office published a blog exploring the role of fiscal policy in improving economic productivity. The subject is particularly interesting given how frequently politicians propose to pay for their agendas, be they tax cuts or spending increases, with dubious claims of improved economic growth. CBO identified four main fiscal tools that can actually result in increased growth through higher productivity:

  • Increasing funding for federal research and development (R&D)

  • Incentivize private investment in R&D through tax credits

  • Increase federal spending on education

  • Increasing loans or loan guarantees for businesses pursuing innovative technology

While federal lending programs can be difficult to quantify, the first three of these are easily measured and are worth putting in perspective relative to other areas of the federal budget.

In Fiscal Year 2017, the federal government is projected to directly spend just under $126 billion on four categories of R...

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 - 10:31 AM

The first segment of the first presidential debate between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump was dedicated to achieving prosperity.

That provided an opportunity for the moderator to ask about -- and the candidates to talk about -- their respective plans for putting the nation’s projected debt on a sustainable path. It’s hard to see how prosperity can be achieved, or long maintained, with a debt that is projected to reach unsustainable levels.

Unfortunately, the subject was not discussed.

Trump made a couple of passing references to the debt and Clinton noted that Trump’s plan might increase the debt, but neither of them made a connection to the debt as an economic issue, much less described what they would do about it.

That’s too bad because one of these two candidates will become president in 2017 and will immediately be confronted with having to submit a budget to Congress against the backdrop of rising deficits and debt.

Each has made some expensive proposals that would have to be paid for and the American people have a right to know how they plan to do this without making the debt problem worse.

Consider what awaits the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue:

  • For the first time since 2009, the budget deficit is projected to increase this year,...
Thursday, August 27, 2015 - 11:00 AM

It has been easy for advocates of generationally responsible tax and spending policies to look at Capitol Hill with dismay for the past few years. A few consequences of inaction and lack of bipartisanship include:

  • A complete breakdown in the federal budget process.

  • Continued struggles to replace arbitrary, shortsighted caps on discretionary spending with smarter deficit reduction.

  • Total inaction on addressing the main drivers of deficits in the coming years, rising health costs and an aging population.

  • More than 30 short-term extensions of transportation funding and a failure to eliminate the growing shortfall plaguing the Highway Trust Fund.

  • Multiple debt-limit showdowns, each of which threatened the United States’ credit rating and roiled financial markets.

Yet in the past few months, I’ve been pleased to see at least a few positive signs.

In over two dozen staff and member meetings conducted over the first two months of my tenure at Concord, we’ve found that some lawmakers are coming back around to the fiscal realities facing them this fall and in the coming years. Part of the...

Monday, October 27, 2014 - 10:36 AM

An interesting poll this month in the Des Moines Register shows that Democrats and Republicans have very different opinions on the relative importance of the federal deficit versus unemployment and jobs as campaign issues. It might be, however, that the two sides just have different ways of expressing concern over the same issue: our nation’s economic future.

Almost one-quarter of Republicans in the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers ranked the deficit as the top issue (23 percent). Only 11 percent of Republicans ranked unemployment/jobs as the top issue.

On the Democratic side, the numbers were nearly the reverse with 21 percent of likely caucus-goers ranking jobs as their top priority and 9 percent ranking the deficit first.

Taken together, roughly one-third of likely caucus-goers in both parties ranked these two issues at the top. 

The Register poll, though limited to Iowans, suggests that there could be a path to consensus if Democrats and Republicans reject the premise that concern about the deficit implies indifference to unemployment and jobs, and vice versa.

It is possible, and indeed it is perfectly...

Monday, July 14, 2014 - 11:18 AM

With the economy continuing its slow recovery, the administration’s Mid-Session Review budget projections released on Friday show little change in the overall outlook. Under the President’s policies, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) anticipates a deficit for the current fiscal year of $583 billion, down $66 billion from the administration’s March projection and far below the trillion-dollar-plus deficits that came with the Great Recession.

It is important to remember, however, that the federal debt -- high by historical standards, at nearly $17.6 trillion -- remains a deep concern, even with quite favorable economic and political assumptions.

Under its proposed budget, the administration says, the 10 annual deficits over the next decade would add another $5.5 trillion to that total. That is up by nearly $600 billion over the March budget.

While the deficit is lower than the earlier projection for 2014-16, it is higher in all subsequent years. The biggest change is that revenues are now projected to be $760 billion lower over the coming decade.

As a result of higher deficits in the out years, debt held by the public is now projected to be slightly higher (72 percent of GDP) in 2024 than projected in the March...

Friday, February 28, 2014 - 4:41 PM

Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) released a detailed discussion draft on comprehensive tax reform Wednesday that eliminates inefficiencies in the tax code and makes it simpler. The Concord Coalition commends Chairman Camp for his efforts. The shame is that it looks like the rest of Congress and the President are desperate to avoid discussing how to improve upon it and then enact a reform plan.

Camp’s proposal effectively leaves the tax code with three tax brackets: One at 10 percent, one at 25 percent, and an additional 10 percent surtax for high earners. To achieve this consolidation and lowering of rates without adding to the deficit, Camp’s plan limits, discards or merges many of the code’s tax expenditures -- special provisions that favor certain behaviors, individuals and businesses. The proposal significantly alters “sacred cow” provisions like the home...

Thursday, February 6, 2014 - 4:07 PM

State lawmakers across the country are debating how to spend large surpluses after the economic recovery helped produce higher-than-expected tax collections for the second year in a row.

State legislatures and governors have welcomed this change after years of enacting painful spending cuts to balance their budgets. But they are waging battles both within and between their political parties about how to spend the extra money.

In a year when up to three dozen governors could run for re-election, as well as countless more state legislators who could be on the ballot, many of the proposals have unfortunately focused on short-term measures.

State officials should consider how to use at least part of their surpluses to improve the long-term health of their budgets instead of just haggling over whether to use the surpluses to finance short-term tax cuts or spending increases. A recent Concord blog post highlighted a report by the State Budget Crisis Task Force that said states have done little to address the long-term structural problems in their...

Friday, January 31, 2014 - 11:34 AM

For those interested in a vision of fiscal sustainability, the State of the Union Address was a major disappointment.

President Obama noted that the deficit has been cut in half, which is a positive development, but he offered no strategy for making further progress. At $680 billion and 4.1 percent of the economy, last year’s deficit was still quite high. More troubling is that fiscal policy remains on an unsustainable path -- a projection that deserved at least some passing mention.Obama briefly acknowledged that more could be done to bring down the deficit “in a balanced way,” but the general sense was that it was time to move on.

Few would dispute that creating new jobs is a top priority, but that task is compatible with a continued focus on fiscal sustainability. Indeed, a properly phased-in fiscal sustainability plan would improve the economic outlook. Moreover, the budget agreement hailed by the President did little to address either.  

When the President did mention fiscal issues in his speech it was mostly to promote new spending or tax cuts with no cautionary reminder that even a “pay-as-you-go” standard will...