August 24, 2016

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Monday, April 4, 2016 - 11:25 PM

In an interview with Bob Woodward of the Washington Post, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump estimated last week that he could pay off the nation’s $19 trillion debt within eight years.

This claim demonstrates a basic misunderstanding of the debt and its impact on the economy. It is also inconsistent with the tax and spending proposals Trump has espoused on the campaign trail, which are far more likely to grow the debt rather than eliminate it.

What’s important about the debt is not its size in dollar terms but its size relative to the economy (GDP) and whether it is on a sustainable path. While the debt is indeed very high by historic standards and is projected to grow at an unsustainable rate over the coming decades, there is no need to eliminate it within eight years. Attempting to do so, however, would require spending cuts or tax increases that risk substantial harm to the economy.  

A better goal would be to stabilize the debt as a share of the economy and then begin to reduce it over time. That is what happened following World War II when the debt in 1946 was $242 billion or 106 percent of GDP. By 1974, the debt had grown in dollar terms to $344 billion but had shrunk to 23 percent of GDP -- the post World War II low.

Moreover, no plausible set of policy...

Monday, October 27, 2014 - 10:36 AM

An interesting poll this month in the Des Moines Register shows that Democrats and Republicans have very different opinions on the relative importance of the federal deficit versus unemployment and jobs as campaign issues. It might be, however, that the two sides just have different ways of expressing concern over the same issue: our nation’s economic future.

Almost one-quarter of Republicans in the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers ranked the deficit as the top issue (23 percent). Only 11 percent of Republicans ranked unemployment/jobs as the top issue.

On the Democratic side, the numbers were nearly the reverse with 21 percent of likely caucus-goers ranking jobs as their top priority and 9 percent ranking the deficit first.

Taken together, roughly one-third of likely caucus-goers in both parties ranked these two issues at the top. 

The Register poll, though limited to Iowans, suggests that there could be a path to consensus if Democrats and Republicans reject the premise that concern about the deficit implies indifference to unemployment and jobs, and vice versa.

It is possible, and indeed it is perfectly...

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 - 10:11 AM

On a recent day in Florida, hundreds of people gathered to examine federal budget issues, question former members of Congress and push for sustainable fiscal policy. For me, that sparked hope for our nation’s future, even in the face of mounting federal debt and changing demographics.  

The Concord Coalition and Fix the Debt partnered with two universities and eight former congressmen on Sept. 23 to present the programs and to help give members of the Millennial generation a larger voice on fiscal issues.

About 200 people -- mostly high school students -- attended a  program during the day that was part of the Lou Frey Institute’s fall symposium at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. That evening about 50 people attended a fiscal forum on the University of South Florida’s Tampa campus.

The Orlando program featured a panel that included Reverend John Allen Newman and former U.S. House members Bill Zeliff, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd, Cliff Stearns and Tom Tauke.

“No political issue is more critical than the federal debt and deficit,” Altmire said. Boyd echoed that sentiment, saying today’s fiscal issues will determine what kind of America we and the next generation will live in.

Added Tauke: “The longer we wait to...

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 - 11:01 AM

Congratulations to the Election Day winners. So what do Tuesday's results mean for the fiscal outlook?

Think of it this way.

If the country is on an unsustainable fiscal path, which it is, and if continued partisan bickering will not solve this problem, which it won’t, and if divided government has been re-elected, which it has, then the only choices are calamity or compromise.

The Concord Coalition urges compromise.

That must begin immediately as the two parties negotiate a responsible alternative to the “fiscal cliff” – a combination of tax increases and spending cuts that will hit with such suddenness that it could throw the still-fragile economy back into recession.

But they can’t just kick the can down the road -- again. The year-end fiscal cliff is bad, but eventually we will need the longer-term deficit reduction produced by the policies comprising the fiscal cliff. It just needs to be phased-in in a more rational way, as proposed by the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles and Domenici-Rivlin recommendations.

The key is to agree on a process for dealing with the serious and structural imbalance between spending and taxes that, if left on autopilot, will damage the economy, stress the social safety net, diminish our world leadership and leave future generations saddled with a debt burden...

Wednesday, October 31, 2012 - 9:32 AM

This is Part II of a two-part series of posts on the presidential candidates' fiscal policies. Part I examines Governor Romney's plans.

The first part of this blog post series looked at the unanswered questions in Governor Romney’s overall fiscal policy, tax reform plans and health care reform plans. This second part will look at President Obama’s budget plans in addition to some areas of uncertainty.

Simply by virtue of being the President, with the requirement to submit an annual budget, Obama has had to provide more details about his fiscal plans. Yet, what those details clearly show is an inadequate long-term fiscal goal. Over ten years, federal debt held by the public would only stabilize temporarily, and at a higher level than it is today.

To the President’s credit, he supports negotiating a long-term, bipartisan “grand bargain” on fiscal issues with both spending cuts and new revenues. Yet, such explicit support has come only after his initial tepid reaction to the Simpson-Bowles report when it was released. Nevertheless, if Obama is re-elected, the upcoming...

Wednesday, October 31, 2012 - 9:31 AM

This is Part I of a two-part series of posts on the presidential candidates' fiscal policies. Part II examines President Obama's plans.

As election day approaches, it is appropriate to look at what we know and what we don’t know about the two candidates’ fiscal policy proposals -- especially since it is unlikely we will get any more details prior to election day.

In many respects, the crucial differences between the two candidates are defined by their fiscal policies, and it is almost certain that the winning candidate’s fiscal policy choices will be as immediately consequential as any president’s in history.

In this blog post, I will review Governor Romney’s proposals and in Part II, I will cover the President’s proposals looking at three key areas: The overall budget goal, tax policy and health care.

It is difficult to overstate how little we know about where Governor Romney’s policies will lead. The basic problem is that he has...

Monday, October 15, 2012 - 10:36 AM

Watching the recent Strengthening of America forums online from my office in Wyoming, I was encouraged by how former Democratic and Republican members of Congress, Cabinet secretaries and other national experts could find such so much common ground on a course for fixing the national debt.

As the western states regional director for The Concord Coalition, I was struck by how this matches what Concord has found working with local leaders and the public here in the West and across America.

It also matches recent statements by national associations of mayors and state officials. While there remain some differences on details, it became evident that there is a much more bipartisan agreement than one sees from watching the 2012 political campaigns.

Four public forums were presented in Washington and New York City between September 12 and October 1 by Strengthening of America – Our Children’s Future, a bipartisan initiative co-sponsored by The Concord Coalition.

These forums featured a diverse collection of business leaders, former members of Congress and former government officials. They identified the key components to a comprehensive fiscal solution: tax reform that generates more revenue for deficit reduction, slower growth in health care costs, sustainable Social Security and Medicare programs,...

Saturday, August 11, 2012 - 4:30 PM

Here are links to some previously published material by The Concord Coalition on proposals by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, who was named Saturday as Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's running mate.

Politico Op-Ed by Robert L. Bixby (April 17, 2012)

Concord Coalition Analysis of Ryan Budget Plan (March 20, 2012)

Blog Post by Robert L. Bixby on Wyden-Ryan Medicare Plan (Dec. 20, 2011)

Blog Post by Robert L. Bixby on Medicare Proposals (May 31, 2011)

Blog Post by Robert L. Bixby Comparing Obama and Ryan Budget Proposals (April 12, 2011)

 

 

Monday, August 6, 2012 - 2:00 PM

Updated 8/17 with "History of Debt" infographic below

The Concord Coalition is proud to be partnering with a new effort called "Face the Facts USA." This nonpartisan initiative is a project of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs and will be providing a new fact every day until the election (for 100 total).

The exciting part of the project is that along with their facts, they are producing great infographics and video content that make it easier to understand significant issues and trends that are (or should be) part of the national discussion as we approach election day.

They have also solicited involvement from some important organizations in the policy community to shed further light on the information in their facts -- and that is where The Concord Concord fits in. Many of the facts the project will be presenting falls into categories that Concord writes about and discusses, which allows us to add supplemental material to go along with the fact of the day.

Already, there have been two debt related facts. On...

Monday, November 22, 2010 - 5:52 PM

My least favorite argument in deficit reduction debates is that a particular option can’t be chosen because it is too unpopular. If that criterion is strictly applied, we might as well fold our tents and wait for the inevitable fiscal crisis because we’ll never eliminate trillion-dollar deficits with “popular” options.

That message was clearly conveyed last week by the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Debt Reduction Task Force, led by two veterans of past deficit-reduction efforts, Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin. Their report followed a similarly tough message from Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, co-chairs of the President’s bipartisan fiscal commission.

Elected officials have not flocked to embrace these reports and it is easy to see why. They propose spending cuts in popular programs. They challenge cherished tax breaks and raise revenues in the process. They produce howls of protest from powerful interest groups on the political left and right.

But they each do one more thing: They outline plausible paths to a sustainable fiscal policy.

As a member of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s task force, I’m very proud of the resulting report. We worked together in a spirit of cooperation and compromise....