November 30, 2015

The (Tab)ulation

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Friday, November 6, 2015 - 10:44 AM

Rep. Scott Rigell (R-Va.) recently offered the America First Act, a bill to replace 75 percent of the sequester cuts scheduled under current law with a mix of reforms in mandatory spending and revenue increases from limiting tax expenditures.

In the aftermath of the bipartisan budget agreement, ideas like those in the Rigell plan could serve as models for long-term, bipartisan fiscal reform efforts in Congress.

The Rigell plan proposes a new framework that would achieve substantial deficit reduction while replacing the sequestration-level spending caps that are in place under current law. The plan comes at a time when a number of fiscal experts and lawmakers have concluded that the sequester caps are unrealistically tight.  

According to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, the Rigell bill would save $2.5 trillion over the 10-year budget window. It would do so by implementing a three-to-one mix of spending cuts to revenue increases, making major reforms to Social Security and Medicare to improve their long-term finances.

On the...

Monday, October 12, 2015 - 11:30 AM

There has recently been a renewed focus on a key provision in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) -- the so-called “Cadillac tax.” The tax, which will take effect in 2018, attempts to limit the tax-free treatment of employer-provided health insurance benefits by taxing them above a certain amount.

The “Cadillac” terminology arises because only the most expensive, generous insurance plans are initially projected to be hit by the tax. As insurance costs rise along with health care costs, more plans will gradually become partly subject to the tax, and thus the amount of fully tax-free health insurance in the country will fall.

This is good, because the exclusion of health insurance from taxation is widely considered economically inefficient and regressive tax policy. It is very expensive for the government, only provides benefits to some workers, distributes those benefits primarily to those who earn the highest incomes, and encourages higher health care spending. Economists believe that as the tax-based preference for health insurance over employee wages dissipates, employee wages will rise.

The Cadillac tax was always a suboptimal and clunky method through which to limit the health care tax exclusion because it does so indirectly (Concord’s...

Monday, September 14, 2015 - 12:33 PM

The House Ways and Means Committee approved a measure last week that would allow the Treasury to continue issuing new debt to pay interest on the publicly held debt and Social Security benefits even if the statutory debt limit has been reached.

The measure, mislabeled the “Default Prevention Act,” would not actually prevent a default because failure to pay any government obligations is still a default and would be seen as such in global markets.

The legislation attempts to prioritize which payments the government would make if the debt ceiling is reached and Treasury can no longer pay all of its obligations. Under the act, all debts not related to debt held by the public or the Social Security trust funds would be left unpaid.

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew again urged Congress last week to raise the debt limit in a timely manner, reminding lawmakers that failure to do so in the...

Thursday, August 27, 2015 - 10:00 AM

It has been easy for advocates of generationally responsible tax and spending policies to look at Capitol Hill with dismay for the past few years. A few consequences of inaction and lack of bipartisanship include:

  • A complete breakdown in the federal budget process.

  • Continued struggles to replace arbitrary, shortsighted caps on discretionary spending with smarter deficit reduction.

  • Total inaction on addressing the main drivers of deficits in the coming years, rising health costs and an aging population.

  • More than 30 short-term extensions of transportation funding and a failure to eliminate the growing shortfall plaguing the Highway Trust Fund.

  • Multiple debt-limit showdowns, each of which threatened the United States’ credit rating and roiled financial markets.

Yet in the past few months, I’ve been pleased to see at least a few positive signs.

In over two dozen staff and member meetings conducted over the first two months of my tenure at Concord, we’ve found that some lawmakers are coming back around to the fiscal realities facing them this fall and in the coming years. Part of the...

Monday, July 27, 2015 - 10:44 AM

The message from the Social Security and Medicare trustees last week could not have been more blunt: the two programs’ long-term costs “are not sustainable with currently scheduled financing and will require legislative action to avoid disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers.”

This conclusion should take no one by surprise. The pressures on both programs from population aging and rising health care costs have been warned about many times by many nonpartisan sources.

What is surprising is that so few lawmakers seem to take these warnings seriously.

After all, Social Security and Medicare are not insignificant programs. In 2014, 59 million Americans received Social Security benefits, and Medicare covered 54 million. At a cost of nearly $1.5 trillion, the two programs alone accounted for 42 percent of federal program spending last year.

Given their size and importance for so many American families, the fact that Social Security and Medicare are on an unsustainable track should place them high on the legislative agenda for both...

Tuesday, July 14, 2015 - 9:58 AM

Last week the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) proposed a new method of paying for health care services, using its authority under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to scale up payment reforms that have been shown to save money while maintaining the quality of care.

In 75 metropolitan areas, Medicare will use “bundled payments” for hip and knee replacements  -- meaning that every aspect of an intervention, from the surgeon’s work to the artificial joint to post-surgery rehab, will be covered in a single payment. Ultimately, providers will both share in any cost savings or risk penalties if there are cost overruns or quality falls short.

For the first time these payment changes will be mandatory. This is an important step in furthering the Obama administration’s goal to make most Medicare payments through alternative models (not fee-for-service) by 2018.

Starting with hips and knees for such mandatory changes makes sense because there is a wide cost variation for these procedures, but no evidence linking cost to quality. Furthemore, this...

Monday, July 13, 2015 - 7:17 AM

In a good example of history repeating itself, Congress for the second year in a row is going down to the wire on a mid-summer deadline to replenish the Highway Trust Fund before it runs out of money.

If lawmakers can’t find a solution by July 31, states will not receive promised funding from the federal government to help pay for transportation projects, bringing many such projects around the country to an abrupt halt.

Proposals released last week rely on a flawed plan to temporarily replenish the trust fund. One of those proposals, however, does identify an alternative way to fund transportation spending that could be a long-term solution.

Lawmakers also have to reauthorize highway and transit programs after passing a two-month extension of them in late May. The short-term patch ensured that state governments could continue to be reimbursed for infrastructure projects during peak construction season, but lawmakers delayed action on needed reforms to transportation financing.

And make no mistake, the trust...

Monday, June 29, 2015 - 11:54 AM

Federal officials could take some lessons from the success that many state leaders have had in putting together responsible budgets, according to former elected officials and others at a recent  panel discussion in Washington.

“There is something about being a governor that seems to force hard choices that don’t always happen in Congress,”  said Robert L. Bixby, executive director of The Concord Coalition. Concord presented the panel discussion Thursday in connection with giving its 2015 Economic Patriot Award to former Indiana governors Mitch Daniels and Evan Bayh III.

In addition to the award winners, other panel members were Michael Castle, a former Delaware governor; Tim Penny, a former Minnesota congressman with experience...

Tuesday, May 19, 2015 - 9:52 AM

At a forum last week on Capitol Hill hosted by The Concord Coalition and the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), experts from across the political spectrum shared their thoughts about retirement security in America. While several different policy proposals were discussed, one area of broad consensus was that Social Security is a critical component of retirement security -- and that lawmakers must act to strengthen the program.

Sen. Kent Conrad, who co-chairs the BPC’s Commission on Retirement Security and Personal Savings, kicked off the event by pointing out that "ultimately, almost all of us will rely on Social Security for the base of our retirement income needs."

"Social Security has serious financing problems," Conrad also said. "We've not really grappled with these issues, and the longer we wait, the more draconian the solutions will have to be."

However, he suggested an even broader reform agenda: “While fixing Social Security will involve tough decisions on revenues and benefits, we shouldn't just be looking at this through the lens of making the program solvent. Social Security, many of us believe, also needs to be modernized...

Thursday, March 12, 2015 - 12:15 PM

In less than three months, the highway bill enacted last July will expire and the program’s trust fund will face imminent depletion. At that point, Congressional failure to act would cause tens of thousands of infrastructure projects to be put on hold and would jeopardize construction jobs across the country.

The highway trust fund has historically operated on a “user pays” principle, where motor vehicle and fuel taxes paid by those who directly benefit from roads fund programs to maintain and improve the system. However, when Congress last raised the federal gas tax in 1993, lawmakers chose not to index it to inflation. As a result, the gap between revenue and expenditures has grown as the real value of the tax has declined.

As the chart above shows, there would be no shortfall in the highway trust fund today had its dedicated revenue source been allowed to grow with inflation. But instead of rectifying this problem or finding an alternative source of dedicated revenue, Congress has largely relied on fiscally irresponsible patches funded by...