April 23, 2014

Dead Wrong About Mortality?

Life Expectancy at Birth (in years)       
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario77.878.579.379.980.581.181.6
     Historical Mortality Decline78.179.380.481.582.583.684.6
     Accelerated Mortality Decline79.180.982.784.486.087.689.1
Population Aged 85 & Over (in millions)       
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario5.55.97.411.314.614.415.7
     Historical Mortality Decline6.57.49.815.720.220.423.1
     Accelerated Mortality Decline7.18.912.821.629.531.636.4
Social Security Cost Rate (in % of payroll)       
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario11.915.017.718.218.319.119.6
     Historical Mortality Decline12.615.818.419.019.620.621.3
     Accelerated Mortality Decline12.916.419.720.922.023.324.5


Notes:  Preliminary results from EBRI SSASIM2 model. Historical mortality decline scenario assumes SSA-projected rates of decline for all ages under 65 and 1970-1995 average rates of decline for ages 65 and over; accelerated mortality decline scenario is identical, except that elderly mortality rates decline twice as fast.

Facing Facts authors: Neil Howe and Richard Jackson Concord Coalition Policy Director: Robert Bixby