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Medicare Reform Issues and Options as Presented to a Senate Committee Selected Projections from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees' Report

February 24, 2000

Selected Projections from the Social Security and Medicare
Trustees' Report

Table One - Medicare Part A Long-Term Cash Deficit

Year	1999 Dollars	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999	-4 Billion	-0.04	-0.08

2035 Deficit	1999 Dollars	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report	-161 Billion	-1.07	-2.24
1998 Report	-212 Billion	-1.46	-3.13

2075 Deficit	1999 Dollars	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report	-384 Billion	-1.58	-3.59
1998 Report	-467 Billion	-2.00	-4.61

Table Two - Medicare Part A Long-Term Cost Estimates

Year	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999	1.56	3.10

2035 Cost Estimate	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report	2.62	5.52
1998 Report	2.99	6.42

2075 Cost Estimate	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report	3.09	6.99
1998 Report	3.48	8.03

Table Three - Medicare Part B Long-Term Cost Estimates

Year	Total Cost As % of GDP	Subsidy as % of GDP
1999	0.98	0.75

2035 Cost Estimate	Total Cost As % of GDP	Subsidy as % of GDP
1999 Report	2.53	1.91
1998 Report	3.19	2.39

2070 Cost Estimate	Total Cost As % of GDP	Subsidy as % of GDP
1999 Report	2.65	2.00
1998 Report	3.31	2.48

Table Four - Total Costs

Year	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
Social Security	4.45	10.80
Medicare Part A	1.56	3.10
Medicare Part B	.75	n.a.
Total	6.76	13.90

2035 Deficit	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
Social Security	6.96	18.19
Medicare Part A	2.62	5.52
Medicare Part B	1.90	n.a
Total	11.48	23.71

2070 Cost Estimate	As % of GDP	As % of Taxable Payroll
Social Security	7.02	19.63
Medicare Part A	3.02	6.78
Medicare Part B	1.99	n.a
Total	12.03	26.41

Table Five - Long-Term Cash Deficits and Part B Subsidy (billions in constant dollars)

1999 Estimate		2035 Estimate		2070 Estimate
Social Security	+70	Social Security	-292	Social Security	-517
Medicare Part A	-4	Medicare Part A	-161	Medicare Part A	-346
Medicare Part B	-64	Medicare Part B	-214	Medicare Part B	-455
Total	+2	Total	-667	Total	-1.32 Trillion