December 18, 2014

Medicare Reform Issues and Options as Presented to a Senate Committee Selected Projections from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees' Report

 

Selected Projections from the Social Security and Medicare
Trustees' Report

 

Table One - Medicare Part A Long-Term Cash Deficit

 

Year

1999 DollarsAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
1999-4 Billion-0.04-0.08
 
2035 Deficit1999 DollarsAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report-161 Billion-1.07-2.24
1998 Report-212 Billion-1.46-3.13
 
2075 Deficit1999 DollarsAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report-384 Billion-1.58-3.59
1998 Report-467 Billion-2.00-4.61

Table Two - Medicare Part A Long-Term Cost Estimates

 
YearAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
19991.563.10
 
2035 Cost EstimateAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report2.625.52
1998 Report2.996.42
   

2075 Cost Estimate

As % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
1999 Report3.096.99
1998 Report3.488.03

Table Three - Medicare Part B Long-Term Cost Estimates

 
YearTotal Cost As % of GDPSubsidy as % of GDP
19990.980.75
 

2035 Cost Estimate

Total Cost As % of GDP

Subsidy as % of GDP

1999 Report2.531.91
1998 Report3.192.39
   

2070 Cost Estimate

Total Cost As % of GDP

Subsidy as % of GDP

1999 Report2.652.00
1998 Report3.312.48

Table Four - Total Costs

 
YearAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
Social Security4.4510.80
Medicare Part A1.563.10
Medicare Part B.75n.a.

Total

6.7613.90
 
2035 DeficitAs % of GDPAs % of Taxable Payroll
Social Security6.9618.19
Medicare Part A2.625.52
Medicare Part B1.90n.a

Total

11.4823.71
 

2070 Cost Estimate

As % of GDP

As % of Taxable Payroll

Social Security7.0219.63
Medicare Part A3.026.78
Medicare Part B1.99n.a

Total

12.0326.41

Table Five - Long-Term Cash Deficits and Part B Subsidy
(billions in constant dollars)

 

1999 Estimate

 

2035 Estimate

 

2070 Estimate

 

Social Security

+70

Social Security

-292

Social Security

-517
Medicare Part A-4Medicare Part A-161Medicare Part A-346
Medicare Part B-64Medicare Part B-214Medicare Part B-455
Total+2Total-667Total-1.32 Trillion