Volume V, Number 7
July 6, 1999

	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070
Life Expectancy at Birth (in years)
SSA's Intermediate Scenario	77.8	78.5	79.3	79.9	80.5	81.1	81.6
Historical Mortality Decline	78.1	79.3	80.4	81.5	82.5	83.6	84.6
Accelerated Mortality Decline	79.1	80.9	82.7	84.4	86.0	87.6	89.1
Population Aged 85 & Over (in millions)
SSA's Intermediate Scenario	5.5	5.9	7.4	11.3	14.6	14.4	15.7
Historical Mortality Decline	6.5	7.4	9.8	15.7	20.2	20.4	23.1
Accelerated Mortality Decline	7.1	8.9	12.8	21.6	29.5	31.6	36.4
Social Security Cost Rate (in % of payroll)
SSA's Intermediate Scenario	11.9	15.0	17.7	18.2	18.3	19.1	19.6
Historical Mortality Decline	12.6	15.8	18.4	19.0	19.6	20.6	21.3
Accelerated Mortality Decline	12.9	16.4	19.7	20.9	22.0	23.3	24.5

Notes:  Preliminary results from EBRI SSASIM2 model. Historical mortality decline scenario assumes SSA-projected rates of decline for all ages under 65 and 1970-1995 average rates of decline for ages 65 and over; accelerated mortality decline scenario is identical, except that elderly mortality rates decline twice as fast.

Facing Facts authors: Neil Howe and Richard Jackson Concord Coalition Policy Director: Robert Bixby