August 1, 2014

Alternative Longevity Scenarios

Volume V, Number 7
July 6, 1999


  2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Life Expectancy at Birth (in years)              
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario 77.8 78.5 79.3 79.9 80.5 81.1 81.6
     Historical Mortality Decline 78.1 79.3 80.4 81.5 82.5 83.6 84.6
     Accelerated Mortality Decline 79.1 80.9 82.7 84.4 86.0 87.6 89.1
Population Aged 85 & Over (in millions)              
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario 5.5 5.9 7.4 11.3 14.6 14.4 15.7
     Historical Mortality Decline 6.5 7.4 9.8 15.7 20.2 20.4 23.1
     Accelerated Mortality Decline 7.1 8.9 12.8 21.6 29.5 31.6 36.4
Social Security Cost Rate (in % of payroll)              
     SSA's Intermediate Scenario 11.9 15.0 17.7 18.2 18.3 19.1 19.6
     Historical Mortality Decline 12.6 15.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.6 21.3
     Accelerated Mortality Decline 12.9 16.4 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.5

Notes:  Preliminary results from EBRI SSASIM2 model. Historical mortality decline scenario assumes SSA-projected rates of decline for all ages under 65 and 1970-1995 average rates of decline for ages 65 and over; accelerated mortality decline scenario is identical, except that elderly mortality rates decline twice as fast.

Facing Facts authors: Neil Howe and Richard Jackson Concord Coalition Policy Director: Robert Bixby