December 20, 2014

bbixby's blog

We Need Less Bombast and More Breathing Room

We will soon see whether there is any remaining capacity in the U.S. political system to reach compromise across partisan lines for the common good.

Republican congressional leaders say that if President Obama wants the government to reopen and the debt limit to be increased he will have to make concessions on spending and agree to negotiate a long-term deficit reduction deal. Obama says he will not negotiate anything until the debt limit is raised and the government reopened. After that, he’ll talk.

Despite Difficulties, There's Still Hope for a Grand Bargain

Developments on the budget front last week demonstrated both the difficulty of achieving a grand bargain and why it may not be totally out of reach.  

First, the difficulty.

Political Turmoil Greatest Concern for Ratings Agencies

For those who follow the credit rating agencies’ assessments of the United States, the past several weeks have offered mixed messages. Overall, some improvement has been noted, mostly due to the steadily improving economy and the declining deficit. Concerns remain, however, about the long-term outlook and the ability of elected leaders to raise the nation’s debt ceiling without provoking a crisis.  

Mid-Session Review Amid Little Progress on the Budget

The Obama Administration released its Mid-Session Review (MSR) of the budget on Monday. It would be nice to say that this update arrived just in time to clinch the deal on a fiscal sustainability plan, or even a plan to get through the rest of the year, but sadly that is not the case.

This "Victory" Is a Surrender

Judging by recent media reports, there is a growing belief in Washington that the best way to deal with the deficit is to “declare victory.” 

It won’t work.

The deficit problem is far from being solved and its lengthy shadow will hang over every other issue, including the economy, until a fiscal sustainability plan is in place.

Hidden in Plain View: Aging, Health Care Costs and Interest Drive the Budget

For those inclined to look beyond the sharp drop in the deficit this year, as we should, the budget update released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on May 14 has some striking indications of things to come. 

Simpson-Bowles Plan Could Play Vital Role in Moving Towards Compromise

The new budget plan released recently by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles once again demonstrates that it is possible to bring the deficit under control using a mix of spending cuts and revenue increases without harming the near-term economy.

It is not a plan for partisan purists, and that is why it could play a vital role in the coming months as Democrats and Republicans struggle to find a way forward on a budget compromise.

Surpluses as Far as the Eye Can See? It All Comes Down to Assumptions

Is the federal budget heading for unsustainable deficits or unsustainable surpluses?

It all depends on the long-term assumptions. 

Moving On From the Budget Fantasy League

Opening Day for the baseball season has come and gone in Washington but for the budget season it comes on Wednesday, when the President officially unveils his Fiscal Year 2014 proposals. Will he get a hit or be sent back to the bench?

Early indications are that he will at least put the ball in play, and that’s a promising start.

The Peace Process – For Washington

President Obama is back home after a diplomatic mission to the Middle East in which he exhorted the Israeli people, particularly young Israelis, to ignore the competing claims of extremists and take the push for peace into their own hands. His speech on this topic at the Jerusalem International Convention Center seems to have hit a responsive chord.