In troubling times, the desire for certainty is understandable, but it can also lead to hasty and ill-considered decisions.

The truth is that policymakers are operating in a world of uncertainty and risk.There is danger in applying too much fiscal stimulus: rising interest costs, dependence on foreign lenders, and the prospect of future inflationary bubbles. But there is also danger in withdrawing fiscal stimulus too fast: double-dip recession, rising unemployment, and deflation.